{"id":53166,"date":"2022-12-28T01:02:49","date_gmt":"2022-12-28T09:02:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.enxmag.com\/twii\/?p=53166"},"modified":"2023-01-06T13:54:53","modified_gmt":"2023-01-06T21:54:53","slug":"prognosticators-beware-forecasting-2023-not-for-faint-of-heart","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.enxmag.com\/twii\/state-of-the-industry-forecast\/2022\/12\/prognosticators-beware-forecasting-2023-not-for-faint-of-heart\/","title":{"rendered":"Prognosticators Beware: Forecasting 2023 Not for Faint of Heart"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>We\u2019ve read all the reports. We\u2019ve seen the statistics from the industry\u2019s analyst community. We\u2019ve heard all the talking heads shouting admonitions and excoriating us for our failure to heed the warning signs. And we\u2019ve shared notes with one another regarding our own experiences and anecdotes. But the truth of the matter is, forecasting is an inexact science, no matter how much data and information we inhale beforehand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sometimes, we\u2019re too close to the situation to make an educated guess. Other times, we\u2019re perhaps too far removed from the experiences of others to make an accurate assessment. Even given all the information and tracking results at our disposal, providing a spot-on prediction for 2023 might, in the long run, be a matter of wishful thinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-thumbnail\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"200\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/www.enxmag.com\/twii\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Mike_Marusic_cropped-2-1-200x200.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-53388\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.enxmag.com\/twii\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Mike_Marusic_cropped-2-1-200x200.jpg 200w, http:\/\/www.enxmag.com\/twii\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Mike_Marusic_cropped-2-1-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, http:\/\/www.enxmag.com\/twii\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Mike_Marusic_cropped-2-1-150x150.jpg 150w, http:\/\/www.enxmag.com\/twii\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Mike_Marusic_cropped-2-1-380x380.jpg 380w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><figcaption>Mike Marusic, Sharp<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>But inherently, we possess this need to be able to wrap our heads around matters that are largely out of our control. Which is why we\u2019re offering our annual State of the Industry report on trends and predictions. You\u2019ve already perused the trends that bear monitoring in 2023, but in this feature, the brave and bold among the office technology universe take their best stab at offering a look at what 2023 has to offer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Perhaps we\u2019re wrong more often than right, but it\u2019s a necessary exercise to flex our analytical muscles. And in being wrong, we have the chance to break down the game film on Monday morning and learn more about what we didn\u2019t know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI think if 2020 and 2021 taught me anything, it was not to predict anything,\u201d one of our panelists succinctly observed. \u201cBut I\u2019m no quitter, so here you go!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default\"><p>I know many believe the supply chain issue is behind us, but there were a number of dynamics that eased the pressure this past summer and allowed for some increased availability.<\/p><cite>\u2013 Mike Marusic, Sharp Imaging and Information Company of America<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s that spirit that moves us forward and compels us to aim small, miss small in our projections. So, whether it\u2019s the supply chain, the economy, hiring proclivities, the future of decentralized work or the need for product and service diversification, we can figure out how to reduce the gap between what we know and what may transpire in the new year. As always, we wish you much success, health, happiness and prosperity in 2023. Read on\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color\"><strong>Chain Links<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"150\" height=\"200\" src=\"http:\/\/www.enxmag.com\/twii\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Elliot-Williams-Epson.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-53171\"\/><figcaption>Elliot Williams,<br>Epson America<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the hottest topics on the mind of resellers is the supply chain and the long-awaited resumption of normal inventory levels. At least one manufacturer executive\u2014Toshiba President and CEO Larry White\u2014is willing to proclaim that 2023 will see a more normalized flow between OEM, dealer and end-user.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cOne caveat is China, which is a bit of a wild card with its zero-COVID policy and the lockdowns in Beijing,\u201d he said. \u201cAlthough virtually all suppliers have diversified our manufacturing facilities, we\u2019re still tied to China in so many ways in terms of components or main manufacturing plants. If a lockdown occurs, it could start limiting production again. We\u2019re hopeful that it doesn\u2019t happen.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default\"><p>We can expect to still see supply chain obstacles such as delays and shortages, but they should gradually improve in the year ahead.<\/p><cite>\u2013 Elliot Williams, Epson America<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Likewise, Mike Marusic, president and CEO of Sharp Imaging and Information Company of America, projects a return to \u201csome normalcy,\u201d although he\u2019s wary of bumps along the way. Even with some prognosticators pointing to a likely economic slowdown in the coming months, Marusic believes supply chains will improve and a greater percentage of the working population will be back on premises by the second half of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"150\" height=\"200\" src=\"http:\/\/www.enxmag.com\/twii\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Mason-Smith-MTS.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-53172\"\/><figcaption>Mason Smith,<br>MTS Office Systems<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI know many believe the supply chain issue is behind us, but there were a number of dynamics that eased the pressure this past summer and allowed for some increased availability,\u201d Marusic noted. \u201cThose factors will return to the previous years\u2019 challenges, and so there will continue to be some difficulties, but not as severe as last year.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Noting that supply chain challenges are ubiquitous across the globe, Elliot Williams\u2014the director of product marketing, business imaging for Epson America\u2014believes relief should be around the corner. For the time being, backorders will persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe can expect to still see supply chain obstacles such as delays and shortages, but they should gradually improve in the year ahead,\u201d he predicted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default\"><p>Customers seem to understand that costs across the board are going up on both goods and services. Dealers will need to get creative and raise the floor on their pricing to continue to grow and adapt.<\/p><cite>\u2013 Mason Smith, MTS Office Systems<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>The normalization of business is a key indicator for success in the eyes of Mason Smith, president and CEO of MTS Office Systems of Anderson, South Carolina. He feels the supply chain situation has demonstrated enough improvement to make him optimistic for 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"150\" height=\"200\" src=\"http:\/\/www.enxmag.com\/twii\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Dan-Cooper-Novatech.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-53174\"\/><figcaption>Dan Cooper,<br>Novatech<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe were in a much better place in November of 2022 than we were in the first half of the year,\u201d he said. \u201cIt will result in dealers stocking more devices in their warehouses versus buying them on-demand.&nbsp;I also see lease rates continuing to increase.&nbsp;Customers seem to understand that costs across the board are going up on both goods and services.&nbsp;Dealers will need to get creative and raise the floor on their pricing to continue to grow and adapt.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some dealers, including Vision Office Systems of Charlotte, North Carolina, are taking a more conservative view as to when the supply chain normalization will resume, although in some cases it\u2019s not a significant difference. Jason Habbal, company vice president, believes it may extend through 2023 and into 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default\"><p>[Consolidation] will result in at least two manufacturers merging and possibly one even exiting the space altogether.<\/p><cite>\u2013 Dan Cooper, Novatech<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe strict lockdown guidelines in Asia will continue to cripple manufacturing and create issues for the U.S.,\u201d he said. \u201cI also think dealers whose base of customers is more SMB are going to be in better shape with people returning to the office. Dealers that have a big focus on enterprise-level accounts are going to need to get creative if these companies don\u2019t return to their offices.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color\"><strong>Digital Transformation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"150\" height=\"200\" src=\"http:\/\/www.enxmag.com\/twii\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Melissa-Confalone-Fraser-AIS.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-53175\"\/><figcaption>\u2013 Melissa Confalone,<br>Fraser Advanced <br>Information Systems<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The topic of digital transformation continues to loom large as ongoing cost pressures coerce customers to save money, notes Mike Pietrunti, senior vice president, U.S. multi-brand dealer channel for Xerox Corp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cDealers can leverage technology to automate routine tasks, optimize print infrastructure, and manage data and information capture more effectively, saving customers time and, most importantly, money,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The most successful of solutions providers will continue to master their go-to-market strategy as an end-to-end servicer for clients, according to Jennie Fisher, senior vice president and general manager of the office equipment group at GreatAmerica Financial Services. That entails employing the right agreements and billing to simplify business for end-users.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default\"><p>The talent and support at the large, independent dealer level is extremely high, so those entities are poised to see healthy growth.<\/p><cite>\u2013 Melissa Confalone, Fraser Advanced Information Systems<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cUse of the GreatAmerica HaaR (hardware-as-a-rental) document has increased because it provides flexibility to layer in new technologies as dealers grow, scale and innovate,\u201d Fisher remarked. \u201cOur 1nVOICE solution compiles everything on a single, understandable invoice, an important aspect to end-customers seeking a total technology solution provider.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color\"><strong>Hybrid Tools<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the brisk pace of digital technology adoption and a hybrid workforce that continues to redefine the traditional workplace, organizations will continue to seek effective ways to manage information, notes Jim Coriddi, vice president, dealer division for Ricoh USA. Dealers that are well-attuned to the hybrid worker\u2019s needs and are willing to invest in digital experiences\u2014including digital enablement and web updates to obtain knowledgeable buyers\u2014can create high-impact, ROI-generating solutions for a growing base of end-users.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"150\" height=\"200\" src=\"http:\/\/www.enxmag.com\/twii\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/John-Villegas-ELATEC.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-53177\"\/><figcaption>John Villegas,<br>ELATEC Inc.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe also anticipate a challenging but necessary shift in the conversation toward a deeper understanding of workflow and solutions that improve operational efficiency and advance business,\u201d Coriddi added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The surging growth in hybrid work environments will continue as companies seek to entice existing and prospective employees with flexible scheduling and home-based operations, according to Bob Burnett, director, B2B solutions development and planning for Brother International. That will continue to facilitate the shift from A3 to A4 print units.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cDecentralized and distributed print will continue to be a trend, and there will be a continued high demand for smaller, more robust printing solutions, as opposed to bigger copiers,\u201d Burnett said. \u201cThe shift from A3 to A4 continues to accelerate, in particular on color machines, which we predict will be at the forefront of this demand as we head into 2023.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default\"><p>From secure printing to complete smart offices, RFID readers will continue transforming how we work.<\/p><cite>\u2013 John Villegas, ELATEC Inc.<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Sharing Burnett\u2019s sentiment is Clark Bugg, director of North America channel sales for Lexmark. A burgeoning decentralized population, he says, translates into organizations requiring fewer large departmental devices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cA4 devices allow dealers to adjust their business strategies accordingly and capture growth in new segments,\u201d Bugg said. \u201cThis will be key to dealer success in 2023. Also, value-added solutions such as cloud, remote print management solutions and security should be on the top priority list for businesses and channel partners in terms of 2023 growth areas.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color\"><strong>Managed IT Growth<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"150\" height=\"200\" src=\"http:\/\/www.enxmag.com\/twii\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Lauren-Hanna-Blue-Technologies.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-53179\"\/><figcaption>Lauren Hanna,<br>Blue Technologies<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>All eyes will be on the national economy and the industry manufacturers\u2019 ability to close the order backlog, notes Preston Woolfolk, co-president of DOCUmation in San Antonio. He forecasts a steady and consistent path for the office equipment industry, fueled by an increase of resellers offering managed IT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI believe managed IT should have the highest growth for dealers,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s continuing to become more necessary for small- and mid-sized businesses and the mid-market space.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default\"><p>It will be important to make sure we instill the same company culture and service excellence that we\u2019ve established in our current offerings.<\/p><cite>\u2013 Lauren Hanna, Blue Technologies<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Given the overall economic concerns, one observer who projects a flat 2023 in most spaces is Tyson Johns, director of finance for Pearson-Kelly Technology of Springfield, Missouri. Still, he believes the leading dealers will capitalize on the opportunity to grow their market share.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"150\" height=\"200\" src=\"http:\/\/www.enxmag.com\/twii\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Dean-Swenson-The-Swenson-Group.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-53181\"\/><figcaption>Dean Swenson,<br>The Swenson Group<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI think the managed IT side of our industry will continue to grow big in 2023 as cybersecurity concerns continue to rise and will do so for the foreseeable future, but also because our workforce is in limbo between office, home, coffee shop, etc.,\u201d Johns added. \u201cFurthermore, we\u2019re hiring across the country to fill our needs, and they all require tech support and office support. How we grant that adds more pressure on cybercrime.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some pundits have predicted an economic downturn for 2023. Paul Archer, CEO of Automated Business Technologies in Centennial, Colorado, is greatly concerned that the U.S. economy, at least, is foreshadowing signs of a sharp decline and the first recession since the 2007-2009 period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default\"><p>Dealers and manufacturers will continue to look to diversify their offerings to make up for the decline in print.<\/p><cite>\u2013 Dean Swenson, The Swenson Group<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThere are lots of predictions about a deep recession,\u201d he said. \u201c[JPMorgan Chase CEO] Jamie Dimon predicted an economic tsunami. Amazon just announced a layoff of 10,000 people, and HP just announced a coming layoff of 4,000 to 6,000 people.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color\"><strong>M&amp;A Among OEMs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Much has been said and written about the inflated volume of merger and acquisition activity in the industry. By our estimates, there was a 35-40% increase in the number of reported transactions between dealers. And while there have been some eye-popping, billion-dollar moves on the manufacturer end, they\u2019ve mostly involved major OEMs adding managed service or software specialists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"150\" height=\"200\" src=\"http:\/\/www.enxmag.com\/twii\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Brent-Martin-ARLINGTON.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-53184\"\/><figcaption>Brent Martin,<br>ARLINGTON<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Dan Cooper, CEO of Nashville, Tennessee-based Novatech, believes 2023 will see \u201cthe beginning\u201d of manufacturer consolidation. \u201cThis will result in at least two manufacturers merging and possibly one even exiting the space altogether,\u201d he said. \u201cWith this consolidation, we could also begin to see U.S. product availability surpass current norms.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The pace of acquisition will continue to be brisk among dealers, notes Josh Salkin, a partner at EDGE Business Systems near Atlanta, and he also wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see a combination among the major manufacturers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAs manufacturers and dealers try to find a profitable path forward post-COVID, those who can provide innovative solutions will prevail,\u201d Salkin added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default\"><p>[Print fulfillment] programs are going to continue to affect the channel resellers as they get outpriced and sourced by the brands they\u2019ve supported for years.<\/p><cite>\u2013 Brent Martin, ARLINGTON<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>2023 bodes particularly well in terms of growth opportunities for the large, independent dealer universe, according to Melissa Confalone, vice president of sales for Fraser Advanced Information Systems of West Reading, Pennsylvania. The quickening pace of technology demands providers that can furnish clients with secure solutions that enable streamlined business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe talent and support at the large, independent dealer level is extremely high, so those entities are poised to see healthy growth,\u201d Confalone added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color\"><strong>Ancillary Offerings<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"150\" height=\"200\" src=\"http:\/\/www.enxmag.com\/twii\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Dan-Larkin.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-53186\"\/><figcaption>Dan Larkin.<br>Marco<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The diversification bell has been rung so often, it\u2019s developing a crack. While you ponder a Liberty Bell analogy about freedom from tyranny of the MFP, consider the case being made by John Villegas, vice president of sales for ELATEC Inc., for RFID readers, which he expects will continue to gain momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cFrom secure printing to complete smart offices, RFID readers will continue transforming how we work,\u201d he said. \u201cIn a smart office, RFID readers can automatically record when employees come and go, and provide secure access to restricted areas. In addition, most companies are now using RFID readers to secure their printing systems. This means only authorized personnel can access the printer for sensitive documents. Finally, RFID readers can be used to automate various everyday tasks, such as tracking inventory and managing conference room bookings. The possibilities are endless.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default\"><p>Since A4 printers generate fewer service events, higher CPP and, therefore, increased revenue, this could be a bit of rare good news for dealers.<\/p><cite>\u2013 Dan Larkin. Marco<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"150\" height=\"200\" src=\"http:\/\/www.enxmag.com\/twii\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Dino-Pagliarello-Konica-Minolta.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-53187\"\/><figcaption>Dino Pagliarello,<br>Konica Minolta <br>Business Solutions<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>One challenge of proffering a more diverse product and service portfolio is the need to onboard staff to sell and support the wider catalog. Given the onerous task of hiring over the past two years, Lauren Hanna\u2014vice president of sales for Cleveland-based Blue Technologies\u2014feels dealers will need to strike a balance between filling staffing needs, retaining culture and maintaining profitability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe change in products and solutions can help grow revenue,\u201d she said. \u201cIt will be important to make sure we instill the same company culture and service excellence that we\u2019ve established in our current offerings.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dean Swenson, president of The Swenson Group in Livermore, California, says industry providers will push forward to seek out new avenues toward profit. \u201cDealers and manufacturers will continue to look to diversify their offerings to make up for the decline in print,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color\"><strong>Plotting Strategies<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brent Martin, director of marketing for ARLINGTON, notes that manufacturers are taking cues from HP\u2019s print fulfillment program as they seek to better accommodate a declining market. Unfortunately, this comes at the expense of reseller partners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default\"><p>Industry analysts are predicting an upswing in A3 MFP unit sales this year, so it\u2019s a great time to take advantage of this opportunity.<\/p><cite>\u2013 Dino Pagliarello, Konica Minolta Business Solutions<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThese programs are going to continue to affect the channel resellers as they get outpriced and sourced by the brands they\u2019ve supported for years,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"150\" height=\"200\" src=\"http:\/\/www.enxmag.com\/twii\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/TJ-DeBello-Stargel-Office-Solutions.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-53188\"\/><figcaption>TJ DeBello,<br>Stargel Office Solutions<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>As end-users continue to embrace digital documents, so goes the need for larger paper sizes. Dan Larkin, solutions sales director for Marco of St. Cloud, Minnesota, believes the shift from A3 to A4 will become more pronounced, especially as supply chain clogs continue to dissipate more rapidly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cSince A4 printers generate fewer service events, higher CPP and, therefore, increased revenue, this could be a bit of rare good news for dealers,\u201d Larkin remarked. \u201cAnd when chip shortages ease, manufacturers could also get these smaller, simpler products to market much quicker.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the view of Dino Pagliarello, senior vice president, product management and planning for Konica Minolta Business Solutions, the new year represents an opportune time for dealer introspection. Assessing business plans, the company\u2019s identity and whether it has the right skills and partnerships in place is vital, and dealers can hit the reset button by getting back in front of customers and reinforcing the value of their relationships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default\"><p>These companies are going to be looking at partners that can find alternative ways to help them procure these resources without much upfront capital expense.<\/p><cite>\u2013 TJ DeBello, Stargel Office Solutions<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cSales teams should be able to discuss what a potential recession might mean for their customers and how they can navigate it,\u201d Pagliarello noted. \u201cVerticalization will continue to trend. Industry analysts are predicting an upswing in A3 MFP unit sales this year, so it\u2019s a great time to take advantage of this opportunity.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color\"><strong>XaaStacular Performance<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the positive developments that continues to garner momentum is the movement toward everything-as-a-service (XaaS). TJ DeBello, vice president of sales for Houston-based Stargel Office Solutions, notes companies are increasingly looking at outsourcing without the intention to own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe see the trend with IT hardware infrastructure, for which clients have limited IT budgets and resources. These companies are going to be looking at partners that can find alternative ways to help them procure these resources without much upfront capital expense,\u201d DeBello added. \u201cI believe this will also be more prevalent with copiers and printers moving into 2023.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We\u2019ve read all the reports. We\u2019ve seen the statistics from the industry\u2019s analyst community. We\u2019ve heard all the talking heads shouting admonitions and excoriating us for our failure to heed the warning signs. And we\u2019ve shared notes with one another regarding our own experiences and anecdotes. But the truth of the matter is, forecasting is an inexact science, no matter how much data and information we inhale beforehand. Sometimes, we\u2019re too close to the situation to make an educated guess. Other times, we\u2019re perhaps too far removed from the experiences of others to make an accurate assessment. Even given all the information and tracking results at our disposal, providing a spot-on prediction for 2023 might, in the long run, be a matter of wishful thinking. But inherently, we possess this need to be able to wrap our heads around matters that are largely out of our control. Which is why we\u2019re offering our annual State of the Industry report on trends and predictions. You\u2019ve already perused the trends that bear monitoring in 2023, but in this feature, the brave and bold among the office technology universe take their best stab at offering a look at what 2023 has to offer. Perhaps we\u2019re wrong more often than right, but it\u2019s a necessary exercise to flex our analytical muscles. And in being wrong, we have the chance to break down the game film on Monday morning and learn more about what we didn\u2019t know. \u201cI think if 2020 and 2021 taught me anything, it was not to predict anything,\u201d one of our panelists succinctly observed. \u201cBut I\u2019m no quitter, so here you go!\u201d I know many believe the supply chain issue is behind us, but there were a number of dynamics that eased the pressure this past summer and allowed for some increased availability. \u2013 Mike Marusic, Sharp Imaging and Information Company of America It\u2019s that spirit that moves us forward and compels us to aim small, miss small in our projections. So, whether it\u2019s the supply chain, the economy, hiring proclivities, the future of decentralized work or the need for product and service diversification, we can figure out how to reduce the gap between what we know and what may transpire in the new year. As always, we wish you much success, health, happiness and prosperity in 2023. Read on\u2026 Chain Links One of the hottest topics on the mind of resellers is the supply chain and the long-awaited resumption of normal inventory levels. At least one manufacturer executive\u2014Toshiba President and CEO Larry White\u2014is willing to proclaim that 2023 will see a more normalized flow between OEM, dealer and end-user. \u201cOne caveat is China, which is a bit of a wild card with its zero-COVID policy and the lockdowns in Beijing,\u201d he said. \u201cAlthough virtually all suppliers have diversified our manufacturing facilities, we\u2019re still tied to China in so many ways in terms of components or main manufacturing plants. If a lockdown occurs, it could start limiting production again. We\u2019re hopeful that it doesn\u2019t happen.\u201d We can expect to still see supply chain obstacles such as delays and shortages, but they should gradually improve in the year ahead. \u2013 Elliot Williams, Epson America Likewise, Mike Marusic, president and CEO of Sharp Imaging and Information Company of America, projects a return to \u201csome normalcy,\u201d although he\u2019s wary of bumps along the way. Even with some prognosticators pointing to a likely economic slowdown in the coming months, Marusic believes supply chains will improve and a greater percentage of the working population will be back on premises by the second half of the year. \u201cI know many believe the supply chain issue is behind us, but there were a number of dynamics that eased the pressure this past summer and allowed for some increased availability,\u201d Marusic noted. \u201cThose factors will return to the previous years\u2019 challenges, and so there will continue to be some difficulties, but not as severe as last year.\u201d Noting that supply chain challenges are ubiquitous across the globe, Elliot Williams\u2014the director of product marketing, business imaging for Epson America\u2014believes relief should be around the corner. For the time being, backorders will persist. \u201cWe can expect to still see supply chain obstacles such as delays and shortages, but they should gradually improve in the year ahead,\u201d he predicted. Customers seem to understand that costs across the board are going up on both goods and services. Dealers will need to get creative and raise the floor on their pricing to continue to grow and adapt. \u2013 Mason Smith, MTS Office Systems The normalization of business is a key indicator for success in the eyes of Mason Smith, president and CEO of MTS Office Systems of Anderson, South Carolina. He feels the supply chain situation has demonstrated enough improvement to make him optimistic for 2023. \u201cWe were in a much better place in November of 2022 than we were in the first half of the year,\u201d he said. \u201cIt will result in dealers stocking more devices in their warehouses versus buying them on-demand.&nbsp;I also see lease rates continuing to increase.&nbsp;Customers seem to understand that costs across the board are going up on both goods and services.&nbsp;Dealers will need to get creative and raise the floor on their pricing to continue to grow and adapt.\u201d Some dealers, including Vision Office Systems of Charlotte, North Carolina, are taking a more conservative view as to when the supply chain normalization will resume, although in some cases it\u2019s not a significant difference. Jason Habbal, company vice president, believes it may extend through 2023 and into 2024. [Consolidation] will result in at least two manufacturers merging and possibly one even exiting the space altogether. \u2013 Dan Cooper, Novatech \u201cThe strict lockdown guidelines in Asia will continue to cripple manufacturing and create issues for the U.S.,\u201d he said. \u201cI also think dealers whose base of customers is more SMB are going to be in better shape with people returning to the office. 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